The USD/JPY pair is rising in a channel after reversing out of its down-trend. It is now finely balanced after having retraced 61.8% of the previous move. If it recovers and pushes higher, the rising channel will probably extend and it could reach the upper line at 81.10. On the other hand it is also possible that the pair will continue to move down, breaking out of the rising channel and extending to the old lows at 77.70, in what is probably a final 5th wave of the move down which began in March.

Analysis prepared by:

Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst