The USD/JPY pair has broken out of a descending channel and is expected to fall to targets in the region of 77.65 (the June lows) and then 77.30. However, instead it is pulling back and threatening to go higher. It has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci and so there is a possibility of a recovery with the next target at the trend-line again at 78.40. A move lower, however, would have to breach the 78.05 level, with a move from there expected down to 77.65 and the June lows.

Analysis prepared by:

Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst