Forex4you India

GBP/USD: bearish continuation

admin — Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000

Cable has just broken down through monthly and weekly pivots and is continuing its strong move down. The breakout of the ascending wedge on the daily chart gives a downside target for the end of the move at 1.5550 but there are likely to be some major stops on the way. Quite near at hand we have the 50-day MA at 1.5820 and it is probable the pair will sit and consolidate there, if not actually begin a bounce; then there is support at 1.5775, however eventually I see it making its way all the way down to the 1.55s.

Analysis prepared by:

Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

USD/CHF: bullish pennant

admin — Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000

The rally higher has stalled and begun to consolidate. It is probably forming a bullish pennant with an upside target of 0.9580 – which is also the level of the old highs (measuring the ‘pole’ from the last gap up). RSI is still overbought, and although it can stay that way for a long while in a strong up-trending market, it might be warning of more sideways movement before the break higher. Obviously it is also possible there may be break-down, which would probably target support and resistance at 0.9370.

Analysis prepared by:

Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

EUR/USD: technical analysis

admin — Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000

With indicators now oversold there is the possibility of some upside, perhaps targeting the top of the current consolidation at 1.2745 – and then if there is an upside breakout to perhaps 1.2825. Equally the consolidation could be a pennant pattern signalling a continuation of the bear trend, and my preference is for a break below the 1.2715 border, signalling a probable run down to 1.2640 initially, where the S3 monthly pivot also happens to reside.

Analysis prepared by:

Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

EUR/GBP: rebound underway

admin — Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000

Early bullish signs for euro-pound. Yesterday it posted an inverted hammer candlestick and if today is a strong up-day that would act as confirmation. RSI is overbought and has formed a double bottom pattern and bullish convergence. The pair is currently supported by an old consolidation zone formed in 2008/9. My preference is for a bounce to target the monthly pivot at 0.8065 initially. Targets lower down beckon however, at 0.78 and 0.77, where substantial support from the lower channel line and 50% Fibonacci lie, and the down-trend will probably resume eventually.

Analysis prepared by:

Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

EUR/USD: bounce possible

admin — Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000

Eurodollar is forming reversal patterns at the lows which could indicate a bounce if confirmed. A hammer is forming on the daily and 4-hr charts. The measuring gap target at 1.2730 has been reached; the weekly pivot is supporting and not far below is the rarely touched S3 monthly pivot. There is further support from old trend-lines on the 50 pip and 10 pip point and figure charts. A bounce higher would probably reach resistance at 1.2810 and then 1.2873; a roll-over would target former lows at 1.2625.

Analysis prepared by:

Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

EUR/USD: fractal analysis

admin — Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000

Good afternoon, respected colleagues. We continue to consider EURUSD currency pair from the viewpoint of a fractal analysis. At the moment we observe a pivot, seen on an hourly chart. The accuracy of a match between the chart and the fractal structure is 97%. Potential target for 1.300 growth - until the beginning of the next week (Tuesday-Wednesday). Support is found within 1.2800 range. If the price holds below his level, current forecast will be cancelled and reconsidered.

Analysis prepared by:

Maxim Dmitrievsky
Forex4you analyst

E-mail: dmitrievsky@forex4you.org.

AUD/USD: on support

admin — Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000

The aussie has fallen to a major multi-year trend-line, as well as parity and the bottom of its down-sloping trend-line. It could bounce from this substantial support platform and rally up to the monthly pivot at 1.0030. A break of that would be required to give confidence for a run up to 1.0200, and a reversal pattern would also add weight. The alternative is that the pair may fall through the trend-line and continue its strong descent, with the next downside target at 0.9700.

Analysis prepared by:

Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

USD/CHF: uprend to resume

admin — Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000

The swissie has rallied up to the monthly pivot and pulled back. It has found support at an old resistance level at 0.9335 and my preference is for a resumption of the up-trend with an eventual end-point at the old highs of 0.9580 (which is also the target for the triangle breakout). The alternative is that there the pair will break lower, passing through the support level at the lows and eventually targeting the cluster of support at 0.9220.

Analysis prepared by:

Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

EUR/USD: technical analysis

admin — Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000

Eurodollar has bounced off the monthly pivot at the 1.2820 level and begun rising sharply. This is probably a short-covering rally before the larger down-trend resumes. We could see it rise up to the consolidation level at 1.2925/35 and then roll-over. After that, the major down-trend should push the pair lower and reach the target from yesterday’s measuring gap at 1.2730, before probably retouching the 1.2625 lows.

Analysis prepared by:

Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst

FX news and analysis 14th May

admin — Wed, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000

USD

The dollar rose in most pairs after a general fall in risk appetite as a result of a worsening political situation in Greece where successive attempts to form a coalition failed. The most likely outcome now is for a repeat election in early June. Opinion polls suggest the far-left Syriza party could get the most votes in a re-election which means there is strong chance of a government being formed which has an anti-austerity agenda. Tsipras the head of Syriza is so opposed to the bailout that he described in terms of a criminal act. If he wins a re-election it could lead to the exit of Greece from the euro-zone and the reinstatement of the drachma. At the moment the uncertainty surrounding this possibility is crippling the investor appetite which is pushing the dollar higher. In the absence of U.S data, the other main theme was news from China, where the Pboc announced a decrease in the reserve requirements for banks, from 20.50% to 20.00% which sparked growth fears and further hit risk appetite. The dollar now looks poised to consolidate its gains as euro-zone originating risk aversion increases.

EUR

The euro spiralled down on Monday as uncertainty over the outcome and the future effects of the Greek elections combined with worsening reports from the peripheral bond markets to create a fresh crisis for the single currency. It now seems likely that there will be another election in Greece as the major parties cannot form a coalition. Early indications are that the far-left Syriza party, which is against the bailout deal and austerity will get the most votes, which would probably lead to the exit of Greece from the euro. The end of the bailout deal could lead to another ‘Lehman style’ crisis for the markets with a run on heavily exposed banks. In bond markets yields rose in sales of peripheral debt, with Spanish 10-year bonds closing in on unsustainable levels near to 7%. Overall the disproportionate rise in short term debt rates is a very bearish indicator. The main data event today was Euro-zone Industrial Production, which fell -2.2% YoY in March, when a -1.4% fall had been predicted and -0.3% MoM when a 0.4% rise had been estimated with 0.8% previous. Euro will probably continue lower as outlook in Greece and Spain remain negative.

GBP

The pound recovered and pushed higher after unsettling events in Europe increased demand for the relatively safe-haven pound. Investors were attracted to the stability of U.K treasuries – also known as Gilts. The pound strengthened versus the dollar which itself strengthened from safe-haven demand as a result of Greek election concerns, rising peripheral borrowing costs and growth fears in China. The pound usually moves in tandem with the euro but it moved in the opposite direction on Monday. The euro-zone is Britain’s largest export partner so the U.K would be adversely hit by any downturn in Europe, however, this didn’t seem to impact on Monday – although it is also possible that sterling was propped up by some short-covering after Friday’s big down-move. There were no major data releases and the next big event for the pound is the Trade Balance on Tuesday morning, which is expected to show a fall in the deficit from -£8.7bn to -£8.4bn.

JPY

The yen continued to push higher as risk aversion increased following investor concerns about the political instability in Greece, where it looked more probable that there would be re-elections and that the far-left anti-austerity Syriza party would probably win. The increased the possibility of Greece exiting the euro-zone led to spike in risk aversion and a consequent rise in the yen. Other news from China also impacted on the yen, increasing its rise, as the People’s Bank of China reduced the reserve requirement for its banks leading to concerns about growth and liquidity. Japanese data out on Sunday night showed an easing in the deflationary trend, after a lower than expected fall in Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index, which dropped to 0.3% when a 0.1% fall had been expected and the index had increase 0.5% in the previous year. It seems likely now that the yen will continue its bullish trend higher as euro-zone debt concerns look set to worsen leading to increased haven demand for the currency.

Analysis prepared by:

Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst