To make this anniversary memorable, we have prepared campaign “+6% bonus on profitable accounts” for you to make extra profits.

We thank all of you for your continuing support and trust!

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If you have any additional questions, please contact Forex4you Customer support by phone (022-265-130-61), by email (info@forex4you.in) or by LIVE CHAT option.

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But it seems that this week hope was destroyed definitely. Negotiations between the Democratic Party, the People of Liberty Party headed by Silvio Berlusconi and  Five Star Movement  was a complete failure. What is more, Bersani made an announcement, which gave rise to wide resonance, that «only madman» can strive for power in «this country, which is steeped in uncertainty».

During a month after the elections profit making capacity of Italy’s bonds was on acceptable levels and on 25^th of March it even renovated a month low. Investors as if did not want to face the truth and believed till the last moment that Italy would manage to avoid a political vacuum. But, it seems that now pressure started to grow. In any case Italian borrowing costs rise to record five months level 3.65% in five-year bond auctionна, and the EURUSD  currency pair renewed four months low 1.2750 the same day.

It is obvious that Italy will need repeated elections. Bersani’s announcement about this difficult situation only gave rise to apprehension: whether economic and finance system of Italy is able to come through a potential shock? And they are rather serious. Firstly, the country will be forced to come through a difficult period of «anarchy» till new elections. Secondly, as a result of new elections there will be no winner or opponents of strict economy will win («People of Liberty») and even membership of Italy in euro zone («Five Stars»).

In its announcement about Italy the International Monetary Fund notified that despite «astonishing stability» of financial system in the country and its ability to withstand shock, it is not quite protected from crisis. At the same time experts of the IMF noted that economic growth recovery  is “of great sigmificamce for economic stability in Italy”.

And Italy has serious problems just with economic growth. In January industrial production fell behind last year level by 3.6%, and manufacturing orders – by 3.3%, retail trade – by 3%. Political vacuum, followed by lack of efficient economic policy, will more likely be an additional obstacle to recovery of third euro zone economy. Is it worth to tell that if Italy lost investors’ confidence as a result of political problems, it will be a powerful danger for the whole euro zone.

Photo by Robert K. Bailey

One of the most important points of Economic policy of Barack Obama to accelerate economic growth is export intensification. The last statistics gave hope that America will manage to improve the situation with this point of economic policy to some extent at least.

As we see on the chart above, sharp decrease of foreign trade deficit was in spring 2009 because of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis, when the US export and import fell. As import fall was more considerable, it lead to considerable decrease of a balance of trade deficit.

Then, in 2009-2011,deficit started to increase and reached its top in 2011-2012. In that moment there was a change, and during 2012 there was slightly increasing trend on the chart of a balance of trade – foreign trade deficit was decreasing. In December it reached almost four years record low – the level of 38.1 milliard dollars. The total balance of trade decrease in 2012 was 3.5% y/y. In order to understand the source of this positive tendency, let’s look at the charts of the US export and import volumes.

Import volumes in 2012 beat before crisis 2008 record only for a short time, and then decrease under this level, export already beat before crisis record high in 2011 and kept decreasing.

The main factor is undoubtedly The US course for reducing energy import by increasing extraction inside the USA. What is more, the USA is gradually strengthening its positions as exporter of “black gold”. In December 2012 the US imported 222.9 million barrels –  1997 record low (!). At the Same time the USA beat the record by oil export, having sold the hydrocarbon raw material amounted 11.6 million dollars.

It is early to assume whether 2012 positive trend will be only sort-term correction or become the beginning of long-term tendency of the US trade deficit reduction. It is only clear that in order to strengthen the US export positions it is necessary to accelerate tempo of economic growth in the main marketing outlets: in Canada, European Union, Latin America, China and Japan.

Analysis Prepared By:
Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you Analyst

Analysis Prepared By:
Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you Analyst

Analysis Prepared By:
Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you Analyst

Analysis Prepared By:
Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you Analyst